Russia's growing outreach in South Asia manifestation of its non-coercive diplomacy

New Delhi: Russia is making concerted efforts to underscore its position as a global power. It has stepped up engagements with the Global South, including South Asia. Trade and economic cooperation, and an uptick in defence and military technical cooperation, have characterised Moscow's recent multifaceted interactions in South Asia.

Representatives of 150 countries have been invited to the 13th International Meeting of High Representatives In-Charge of Security Issues, scheduled to be held under the chairmanship of Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu in Moscow from May 27-29. The forum is an important international platform for exchanging opinions on all issues related to security and mechanisms for strengthening cooperation between partner countries in the fight against international terrorism, extremism, transnational crime, drug trafficking, as well as new challenges and threats. It will be followed by the 28th Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) from June 18-21 as Russia continues efforts to strengthen relations with countries of the Global South.

The trend of Russia's cooperation with six countries of South Asia shows a significant strengthening of the Russian presence in the region.

Afghanistan: The delisting of Taliban as a terrorist group by the Russian Supreme Court was a signal of Russia's intent to increase its official engagements with Afghanistan's interim government. Following this, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation has decided to upgrade Afghanistan's diplomatic mission in Moscow to the level of an Embassy. Special Representative of the Russian President for Afghanistan, Zamir N. Kabulov and Russian Ambassador to Kabul, Dmitry A. Zhirnov met Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and informed them that Russia would raise Afghanistan's diplomatic representation in Moscow to Ambassador level. Taliban Minister of Public Works Mohammad Isa Sani also recently met Zhirnov and discussed reconstruction of Salang highway, construction of new road tunnel to connect southern and northern regions, supply of Russian construction machinery and railway equipment. Russia wants to ensure stability in Afghanistan, while keeping extra regional powers at bay, to secure its strategic interests in the Central Asian Region (CAR) and exploit Afghanistan's geopolitical position as a "transit corridor" connecting Eurasia with South Asia. Proximity with Pakistan on Counter-Terrorism (CT) issues helps Moscow pursue its strategic interests in CAR. Both Moscow and Kabul acknowledge the growth potential of bilateral trade (USD 1 billion in 2024) and the possibility to diversify the trade basket. Taliban Minister for Energy and Water Abdul Latif Mansoor, in his interaction with Zhirnov, sought Russian investment in infrastructure projects in water and energy sectors, including transfer of water from Panjshir to Kabul, construction of dams in Takhar, Baghlan, Herat and Ghazni and coal, wind, solar and gas based energy projects. In November 2024, Secretary of the Security Council of Russian Federation, Sergei Shoigu met with Afghanistan Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Ghani Baradar. The parties discussed the construction of the Trans-Afghan Railway to Pakistan. No doubt, at some stage, the China factor will also come into play. Russia and Afghanistan are likely to finalise an agreement for transit of 50 million cubic meters (mcm) of LNG through Afghan territory. Trial runs have already been made to transport LNG via trucks/tankers with cryogenic storage facility till Afghanistan. Moscow has been one of a handful of global players who have sought to grow their ties with Afghanistan since the chaotic August 2021 withdrawal of US-armed troops from Kabul that swept the Taliban back to power.

Bangladesh: Moscow is keen on expanding defence cooperation with Bangladesh. The two sides are finalising agreements on military cooperation, mutual protection of intellectual property, training in military establishments and cooperation in the naval field. Recently, Army Chief of Bangladesh, General Waker-Uz-Zaman paid a rare four-day visit (April 6-9) to Russia, signalling a move to diversify Dhaka's global outreach. Zaman held consultations with both civilian and military leadership in Moscow besides visiting arms manufacturing facilities. Russian Deputy Defence Minister Colonel General Alexander V. Fomin and Zaman discussed prospects of military cooperation. The Bangladesh Army Chief also interacted with Rosatom overseeing the construction of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant, Bangladesh’s most expensive infrastructure project ever. He also visited Russian defence firms Rostec and Rosoboronexport with the intention that Bangladesh is interested in co-development, technology transfer and perhaps even localised production. Zaman discussed the export of Bangladeshi workers to Russia by advocating for a formal, transparent manpower export system wherein Bangladesh could convert a vulnerability into a remittance pipeline. Russia's need for labour is undeniable in construction, shipping, farming, but informal migration channels are ripe for abuse. Bangladesh's Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Hasan Mahmood Khan met Russian Ambassador to Bangladesh Alexander G. Khozin earlier this year to expedite issues related to maintenance/overhaul/procurement of RD-33 engines for MIG-29 aircraft, maintenance/supply of YAK-130 engines and proposed visit of Bangladesh Air Force (BAF) personnel to ROSCOSMOS besides other aircraft manufacturing facilities. Two Russian Pacific Fleet corvettes Rezkiy and Hero of the Russian Federation Aldar Tsydenzhapov and a medium sea tanker, Pechenga made a goodwill port call (Chattogram, April 12-16) and held joint maneuvers. Bangladesh has evinced interest in purchasing mine sweepers and hovercraft with provision of transfer of technology. Bangladesh will be sending a platoon (20-30 personnel) for Joint Strategic Exercise West-2025 to be held in September. In March, Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexey L. Overchuk met Bangladesh's Head of Interim Administration, Muhammad Yunus on the sidelines of BOAO Forum for Asia in Hainan and underlined Moscow's interest to export wheat and fertilizer to Bangladesh and enhance bilateral people-to-people contacts. Russian state atomic energy corporation Rosatom has started testing the power units of Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP). In March, Rosatom's Engineering Division successfully carried out hydraulic pressure tests on the primary circuit systems and equipment of Unit 1 at the RNPP. Both sides are trying to execute payment of Bangladesh's outstanding obligations to Moscow in Chinese Yuan through Bank of China (BoC) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC). Both countries are meanwhile also exploring potential to diversify the trade basket. A few Russian textile and apparel business enterprises are exploring the potential of expanding their operations to Bangladesh.

Sri Lanka: Moscow has made a fresh outreach to Colombo in the defence sector under the 'Action Plan for Cooperation Activities-2025'. Sri Lanka has evinced interest in acquiring advanced multi-purpose vessel for towing, preventing oil spill, ship salvage operations and disaster management and high endurance surveillance drones with day/night capability. It has also sought capacity-building in cyber intelligence, monitoring social media, terror groups, drug traffickers; and training courses on chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear aspects as well as intelligence and maritime related matters on gratis basis. A Russian delegation led by Deputy Chief of International Military Cooperation Major General Alexander I. Zinchenko, during interactions with the Sri Lankan side in January discussed participation of Sri Lankan Navy delegation in the Russian naval parade, unofficial calls by Sri Lankan Navy ships at Russian ports, visit of Sri Lankan Navy delegation to Russian Naval Academy and a draft inter-governmental agreement for navy ship port calls. Colombo has been taking Russian assistance in maintenance of MI helicopters and Russian origin BMPs and tanks despite local US Embassy advising Lankan Defence Ministry against signing a Mi-17 service contract with any Russian/Belarusian company sanctioned by the US. Meanwhile, Colombo is concerned over participation of its nationals in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As of January 2025, 554 Sri Lankans were reportedly serving in the Russian military and 109 had returned back to Sri Lanka. Russian authorities have confirmed 64 deaths. Moscow and Colombo intend to encourage trade, economic, scientific and technical cooperation to increase bilateral trade which was only USD $ 538 million in 2023, with a trade deficit of USD 250 million in Russia's favour. Both countries are considering cooperation in the energy sector. Russia supplied 55,000 tonnes of fertilizers (potassium chloride) to Sri Lanka. In April, Russia's Deputy Minister of Energy Roman Marshavin discussed prospects for joint investment projects in the fuel and energy sector, with his Sri Lankan counterpart Kumara Jayakody. A Russian business delegation comprising representatives from Russian banks and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry participated in the Russia-Sri Lanka Business Forum recently. Russian Ambassador to Sri Lanka and Maldives, Levan S. Dzhagaryan met the Speaker of the Parliament of Sri Lanka, Jagath Wickramaratne in February as Colombo acknowledged the significant number of Russian tourists visiting Sri Lanka and expressed appreciation for Russia’s continued support on various occasions, including the donation of fertilizer.

Maldives: Russia has signalled its intent to enhance partnership and strengthen bilateral security ties with Maldives and recently appointed its first Consul General in Male. Maldives has consistently avoided accepting Moscow's invitations to attend Russian led events, forums and summits. It is apprehensive of likely adverse impact on relations with friendly countries, particularly the European Union. However, Maldives is cognizant of the potential of FDI and tourists from Russia. An estimated 2,16,092 Russian tourists visited Maldives in 2024, accounting for 11 per cent of total tourist arrivals in the country. Maldives might review its stance once the ongoing Ukraine conflict comes to an end. However, in a recent development, Maldivian Foreign Ministry has suggested a policy shift from a passive stance to a proactive and cooperative engagement with Moscow, including re-establishing high-level diplomatic visits.

Myanmar: Russia and Myanmar have sought to strengthen relations in September 2022 with Myanmar opening consulates in Saint Petersburg on March 5 and in Novosibirsk on March 9. Moscow provided humanitarian assistance to Myanmar to help in relief operations in the wake of the devastating March 28 earthquake. Myanmar State Administration Council (SAC) Chairman, Sr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing (MAH) visited Russia to attend the 80th Victory Day parade on May 9. This was his fifth visit since the coup in 2021. The joint statement issued after the visit on March 3-5 underscored readiness to deepen military–technology, economic and nuclear energy cooperation. Both countries intend to encourage efforts to increase bilateral trade, which was USD $288 million in 2024. Myanmar military leader Min Aung Hlaing also met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow. Their first encounter since the Myanmar military seized power over four years ago brings gains for Min Aung Hlaing in his diplomatic and political theatre, as well as in the civil war, while also underscoring the deepening coordination between Moscow and Beijing around Myanmar issues. Xi reaffirmed China's support for the regime in the regional and international arenas, and expressed support for the junta’s proposed poll. Russia and China are major arms suppliers of the regime. Myanmar is heavily dependent on oil supplies (90 per cent of total oil imports) from Russia to meet its energy shortages and power outages primarily due to aging hydro-electric power stations and electrical infrastructure. Myanmar also plans to send workers for employment in Russian manufacturing, construction and agriculture sectors. Separately, Russian Minister for Economic Development, Maxim G. Reshetnikov and Myanmar Investment Minister Kan Zaw signed a MoU for investment cooperation in Dawei Special Economic Zone (196 sq km project in the Andaman Sea) in February. The MoU envisaged construction of a port and an oil refinery.

Nepal: Moscow has also reached out to Nepal. It has regularly invited Nepalese dignitaries and senior officials to international events in Russia to supplement efforts of Russian Ambassador to Nepal, Aleksei A. Novikov to reach out to Nepalese leaders and interlocutors. Nepal will attend the SPIEF. Russia is keen to resume energy cooperation, especially in hydro-power projects and has suggested reinvigorating the joint Russia-Nepal Working Group on Energy Cooperation which had its first meeting in August 2023 in Kathmandu. Novikov reiterated in April to Nepalese Minister for Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation Deepak Khadka Moscow's interest in expanding investment in Nepal's energy and hydro-power sectors. A Russian power generating company RusHydro intends to have a presence in hydropower, water supply, water treatment and sanitation sectors of Nepal. A RusHydro delegation is likely to visit Nepal in June. In February, a JSC National Aviation Service Company delegation visited Nepal for after-sales support and maintenance of Mi-17 helicopters. Moscow has proposed to supply Mi-17 V-5 military transport helicopters for Nepal's humanitarian efforts in times of natural calamities.

INSTC: The focus is on the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which Russia views as part of its flagship project to expand and strengthen relations with countries in South Asia. The INSTC represents a transformative development in international trade logistics, offering a promising avenue for enhanced economic cooperation and growth across the involved regions. By reducing transit times and costs, the corridor is set to significantly boost trade volumes, fostering closer economic ties and mutual prosperity.

Russia's constructive multilateral relations with the countries of South Asia, manifestation of its non-coercive diplomacy in the region, have opened the gates to its substantial regional influence, allowing Moscow to engage with vital new markets and act resolutely with the ongoing conflicts, while maintaining the role of a pacifying force.

(The writer is an expert on South Asia and Eurasia. He was formerly with Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Views expressed are personal)

--IANS

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