Macron edges towards recognition of Palestinian state amid geopolitical risks

President Emmanuel Macron is reportedly considering the formal recognition of a Palestinian state, a move that, while symbolically potent, is viewed by diplomats and analysts as potentially premature and ineffective in compelling Israel to advance peace negotiations with the Palestinians, as per a Reuters report.

Such a decision, they argue, risks exacerbating divisions within the Western bloc — particularly within the already fragmented European Union — and could strain France’s relationship with the United States, Israel’s . Experts suggest that unless accompanied by substantive measures such as sanctions or trade restrictions, recognition may serve little purpose beyond symbolism.

On Tuesday, it was reported that Germany, another of Israel's long-standing European allies, issued signalling potential punitive measures and affirming that Berlin would not permit arms exports in violation of international humanitarian law. The statement, delivered alongside Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s most forthright criticism of Israel to date regarding the Gaza conflict, is seen as marking a decisive shift in Germany’s stance on the war in Gaza.

French authorities are deliberating the initiative to recognise Palestine in the lead-up to a United Nations summit co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia from 17 to 20 June. The conference aims to establish a framework for a Palestinian state while safeguarding Israeli security.

Should Macron proceed, France — home to the largest Jewish and Muslim communities in Europe — will become the first major Western power to grant such recognition. This would mark a significant shift in a movement historically led by smaller, more critical nations.

“If France moves, several (European) countries will follow,” Norwegian foreign minister Espen Barth Eide told Reuters, signalling the potential domino effect of such a decision.

Macron's evolving stance appears to be driven by intensifying military operations in Gaza and escalating settler violence in the West Bank. French policymakers now appear increasingly inclined to act while the possibility of a two-state solution remains viable.

BREAKING: Prime Minister Netanyahu has released a statement on the DC terror attack.

He slams Macron, Starmer and Carney.

pic.twitter.com/vWbF24RnjC

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) May 22, 2025

“We must move from words to deeds. Faced with facts on the ground, the prospect of a Palestinian state must be maintained. Irreversible and concrete measures are necessary,” Macron’s Middle East adviser Anne-Claire Legendre stated at a preparatory session in New York on 23 May.

Nonetheless, officials caution that Macron has not yet reached a definitive conclusion. Developments such as in Gaza could influence the president’s decision in the weeks ahead.

Behind the scenes, French diplomats are striving to prepare the ground, seeking clarity on issues such as reform of the Palestinian Authority, the disarmament of Hamas, and post-conflict reconstruction plans — all likely to be addressed at the upcoming UN gathering.

Israel has been actively lobbying against the move, with officials describing it as a potential "nuclear bomb" for bilateral relations. Recognition by France, a G7 member and one of Israel’s closest European allies, would provoke intense backlash from Israeli leadership.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded forcefully earlier this month when France, the United Kingdom, and Canada signalled potential recognition and sanctions. He accused the leaders of those countries of antisemitism, underlining the political sensitivities surrounding the issue.

Diplomatic sources suggest that Canada and the UK remain cautious, preferring practical steps on the ground over formal recognition. Their ambivalence may temper Macron’s enthusiasm.

Two sources familiar with the matter disclosed that Israel has issued stern warnings to Paris, ranging from curtailing intelligence cooperation to obstructing French diplomatic efforts in the region. Some warnings even alluded to a possible annexation of additional West Bank territory — a scenario seen as unlikely, given the severe international repercussions it would entail.

According to Tamir Hayman, executive director of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, the fallout would be widespread. “(But) the reaction will be negative across the board (in Israel),” he told Reuters, suggesting that such a move would reinforce hard-right narratives and ultimately be “useless and a waste of time”.

You know what else died in Gaza? The myth of western humanity. pic.twitter.com/clHprZlwlb

— Mohamad Safa (@mhdksafa) May 25, 2025

Initially, Macron offered unequivocal support for Israel following the Hamas-led attack on 7 October 2023, which reportedly resulted in 1,200 Israeli deaths and the taking of 250 hostages. However, as the conflict has intensified and the Palestinian death toll has surpassed 50,000, according to Palestinian health authorities, the French president’s rhetoric has grown more critical.

“We need to move towards recognition. Over the next few months, we will,” Macron declared on 9 April. Despite this, he remained vague, noting that recognition would be part of a broader diplomatic initiative involving both European and Arab states.

Yet no clear signals have emerged indicating that additional Muslim or Arab nations are ready to normalise ties with Israel. Saudi Arabia, widely viewed as the linchpin for Israeli-Arab normalisation, remains reluctant, amid mounting public anger in the Muslim world over the situation in Gaza.

“Regional peace begins with recognising the state of Palestine, not as a symbolic gesture, but as a strategic necessity,” said Manal Radwan, an adviser to the Saudi foreign minister, during the New York meetings. She made no reference to recognising Israel.

Critics of Macron’s approach contend that recognition should result from negotiations, not precede them. They argue that early recognition could reduce Palestinian incentives to engage in meaningful dialogue.

Reflecting this divide within the EU, one European diplomat commented: “It is our view that this recognition would not be helpful now or encourage more action within the member states.”

Others advocate a more comprehensive approach, linking recognition with broader policies such as a ban on EU trade with illegal Israeli settlements and targeted sanctions against Israeli officials.

Despite the mounting criticism and Israeli pushback, French officials remain undeterred. “If there is a moment in history to recognise a Palestinian state even if it’s just symbolic then I would say that moment has probably come,” said a senior French official. Macron, they added, may also be motivated by a desire to cement a legacy before his term concludes in 2027.

With agency inputs